Israeli Jets vs. Iranian Nukes
by Daniel Pipes at danielpipes.org"Barring a 'catastrophic development,' Middle East Newsline reports, George Bush has decided not to attack Iran. An administration source explains that Washington deems Iran's cooperation 'needed for a withdrawal [of U.S. forces] from Iraq.'
If correct, this implies the Jewish state stands alone against a regime that threatens to 'wipe Israel off the map' and is building the nuclear weapons to do so. Israeli leaders are hinting that their patience is running out; Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz just warned that 'diplomatic efforts should bear results by the end of 2007.'
Can the Israel Defense Forces in fact disrupt Iran's nuclear program?
Top secret analyses from intelligence agencies normally reply to such a question. But talented outsiders, using open sources, can also try their hand. Whitney Raas and Austin Long studied this problem at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and published their impressive analysis, 'Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities,' in the journal International Security.
Raas and Long focus exclusively on feasibility, not political desirability or strategic ramifications: Were the Israeli national command to decide to damage the Iranian infrastructure, could its forces accomplish this mission?"
The Natanz uranium enrichment facility.
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